Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae4977171c91ab82e8a22e2f5d272f04d66cdf9aae2669764a8830cfd1c5a8e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AEKof Rayo Vallecano de Madrid, AEK
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb911…7c31backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 12c | 1,579$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 12c | 1,579$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.44 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f21…7e70backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 5c | 1,478$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a1…6aefbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 10c | 520.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 9c | 212.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 12c | 166.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 10c | 112.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 12c | 110.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked AEK | 63c | 80.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 63c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)this page
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5Over won
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AEK (-1.5)AEK won
- Spread: AEK (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.