Europa Conference League · resolved market
AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x740ba525520cb7d0c2511bb34f92bddbf2937a72b345c8466a9b4e56d2534d65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbed3…2811backed Under | 72c | 2,391$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 70c | 1,363$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.7 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 1,034$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.32 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 69c | 965.03$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.82 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 28c | 730.91$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.26 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 599.01$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.8 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 29c | 569.77$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.27 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 35c | 392$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.8 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0add…8809backed Over | 31c | 376.73$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 29c | 368.68$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.76 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 69c | 362.31$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Over | 74c | 299.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…916ebacked Over | 30c | 215.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 28c | 211.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.83 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 194.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 66c | 180$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 28c | 173.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.07 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae80…0f20backed Over | 31c | 162.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…0da5backed Over | 52c | 149.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 61c | 128.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…32bcbacked Over | 67c | 117.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 29c | 111.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Over | 50c | 96.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Under | 53c | 92.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 87.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 126 | 33.3%42 W · 84 L | -21.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 52c | 83.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 31c | 77.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 71c | 75.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 76c | 71.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +8.4wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 46c | 69.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 29c | 68.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Over | 29c | 62.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 31c | 61.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 64c | 61.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 46c | 59.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 46c | 51.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 31c | 47.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 51c | 47.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5a…5875backed Over | 31c | 46.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 51c | 45.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 32c | 39.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 71c | 39.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53f2…defdbacked Under | 44c | 37.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 44c | 35.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 52c | 34.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 69c | 31.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…ba7ebacked Under | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under | 69c | 26.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 53c | 24.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…1c8cbacked Under | 71c | 22.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 68c | 21.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927b…8091backed Over | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…f719backed Under | 70c | 16.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…5c9fbacked Over | 75c | 15.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5this page
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AEK (-1.5)AEK won
- Spread: AEK (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)AEK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.