Europa Conference League · resolved market
AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd129cf0c53f864bef32692455f2a85ac0b118c0387f8ce1facaed3eb76ca4038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 2,330$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.13 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…f6dcbacked Over | 62c | 1,999$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 54c | 1,980$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.24 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 1,922$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.13 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 46c | 1,138$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.52 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…7a18backed Over | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 745.5$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.95 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 700.74$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.61 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Under | 74c | 528.85$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.97 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33fa…681bbacked Over | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28af…3875backed Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…90e6backed Under | 39c | 493.57$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b29…556ebacked Over | 41c | 426.52$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…19a9backed Over | 57c | 340$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…ea31backed Over | 61c | 320.11$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…81e0backed Over | 32c | 299.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 30c | 299.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 37c | 230.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.65 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0a…6165backed Over | 55c | 177.03$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Under | 46c | 170.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 41c | 170.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.36 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 14c | 164.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Over | 24c | 157.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 64c | 152.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…555cbacked Over | 65c | 150.65$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 26c | 148.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 56c | 147.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3e…8b7cbacked Under | 49c | 139.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Over | 14c | 126.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 60c | 118$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd53c…5194backed Over | 25c | 109.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…15ddbacked Under | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…53ebbacked Over | 27c | 95.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 15c | 94.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 24c | 92.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 55c | 92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 14c | 90.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…e926backed Under | 68c | 86.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…7af9backed Under | 69c | 80.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 27c | 71.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 38c | 70.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed Over | 21c | 69.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 65c | 63.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…ed9dbacked Under | 69c | 57.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Under | 79c | 49.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Over | 66c | 37.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd6…e33abacked Over | 30c | 35.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 56c | 34.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 67c | 34.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…f50abacked Over | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 78c | 31.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Over | 40c | 31.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a28…4e3bbacked Over | 57c | 31.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 52cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca4…c4a5backed Over | 49c | 29.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 70c | 23.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bca…24aebacked Over | 64c | 22.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 66c | 22.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 67c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 66c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5this page
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AEK (-1.5)AEK won
- Spread: AEK (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)AEK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.