Mls · resolved market
Spread: Colorado Rapids SC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79accfe49a6c1c762d2b15dd0af9404df90f0a770e20e8dd38255fea3bc8d9ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego FCof Colorado Rapids SC, San Diego FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rapids SC | 28c | 3,207$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.13 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed San Diego FC | 72c | 2,255$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.39 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed San Diego FC | 72c | 694$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.32 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Colorado Rapids SC | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Colorado Rapids SC | 27c | 218.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Diego FC | 75c | 195.81$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked San Diego FC | 73c | 180.41$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Colorado Rapids SC | 7c | 174.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2390…a15fbacked San Diego FC | 73c | 124.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Colorado Rapids SC | 25c | 90.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed San Diego FC | 74c | 69.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed San Diego FC | 72c | 61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed San Diego FC | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +5.8wins | +0.31per pick | 64cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked San Diego FC | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed San Diego FC | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed San Diego FC | 73c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Diego FC | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…97cebacked San Diego FC | 73c | 17.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa625…fac6backed San Diego FC | 73c | 17.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colorado Rapids SC (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rapids SC (-2.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Colorado Rapids SC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)Colorado Rapids SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.