Mls · resolved market
Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa90b7b59a6dfbca23807bc33c6e82a55336f51c6616aad48a570f90146ac4b34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb73…53b0backed Under | 39c | 3,000$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0993…525fbacked Over | 61c | 2,724$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.62 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 51cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 62c | 1,448$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.71 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 25c | 1,175$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.24 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…ee54backed Over | 75c | 1,073$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…753dbacked Over | 59c | 749.98$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 515.4$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.18 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 41c | 472.8$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.95 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 39c | 459.63$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.4 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 42c | 295.35$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.39 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 45c | 283.01$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 165.21$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 61c | 158$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Over | 64c | 134$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 78cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Over | 63c | 118$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 64c | 118$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 41c | 109.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 41c | 104.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 65c | 86.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Under | 62c | 71.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 42c | 64.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 75c | 53.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 37c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d0…6cbabacked Over | 61c | 21.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Over | 73c | 20.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…b131backed Over | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rapids SC (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: Colorado Rapids SC (-2.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Colorado Rapids SC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)Colorado Rapids SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.