Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79cc1bc79da8534ec32815d8cccc54037645f825cbc06a935619b0ad84d7f6fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,639$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.24 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 13c | 1,482$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.8 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 5c | 842.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 713.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 502.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 11c | 488.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 16c | 436.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 11c | 423.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 13c | 408.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 12c | 342.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 11c | 339.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 336.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 311.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 9c | 299.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 230$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 199.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 12c | 187.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f9…1ee3backed Yes | 19c | 173.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…9125backed Yes | 10c | 171.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 147.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 129.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 122.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 24c | 118.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed Yes | 21c | 117.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 76c | 115.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 14c | 115.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 110.78$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked Yes | 24c | 109$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 105$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 13c | 104.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…6c98backed Yes | 19c | 103.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 21c | 95.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 13c | 93.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…7f2bbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 69.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 67.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 64.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 63.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 20c | 62.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 60.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed No | 80c | 52.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…0f8abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 21c | 48.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 74c | 44.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 78c | 32.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3615…1577backed No | 80c | 32.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 76c | 29.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 25.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 78c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…e382backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 16.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 80c | 15.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.