TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,488 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda33…daccbacked No53c1,525$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.925834.5%20 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4eb…69e7backed Yes44c1,442$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.282437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes53c778.7$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.0245130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes77c676.29$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.8727047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No55c610.63$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.7428441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes47c600$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31814646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4ca…739abacked No56c574.49$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.422657.7%15 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick73cpaid-19.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No62c532.43$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.378,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes35c501.46$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.4532132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes36c490.93$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.916543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes48c458.15$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.1110642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c449$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.45,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c55…ddfbbacked No22c434.22$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8411724.8%29 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No34c380$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.865,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes41c372.94$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.5119737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes31c328.44$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.021,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No24c284.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.744,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes38c261.54$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.3210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No31c254.55$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7484124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No55c250$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.54,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes46c246.43$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.553,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No58c244.77$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.351,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No26c237.05$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.896,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes34c232.5$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.3829732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked No8c216.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8411835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed No38c216$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.334533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed Yes47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.535344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c193.27$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes39c193.18$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1818035.6%64 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes31c188.6$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.241,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes43c188.5$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3727246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No58c172.83$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8325358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcae4…e479backed No70c163.88$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.811353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes42c161$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No50c143.71$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.093,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No42c139.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes37c135.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5420534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No57c124.07$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.997,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x95e5…c974backed No12c122.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.22564%16 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb139…29a1backed Yes80c122$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.45046%23 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No53c120.29$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.681,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes68c118.94$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.536,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes37c117.96$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.3115334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No49c117.9$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes39c117$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.3777851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65eb…2c83backed Yes43c116.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.31650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No63c114.33$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.462,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No65c111.95$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7792678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes38c109.86$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.8556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed No19c105.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9214119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x340c…f130backed Yes50c104.25$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.846637.9%25 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.519148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6271031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked No57c99.97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.989832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No52c98.88$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.251,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked Yes35c98.03$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7215044.7%67 W · 83 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes40c97.53$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d9a…dbe1backed No76c96.59$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.673043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes41c93.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.469,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes36c92$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes42c91.54$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.162,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes40c91.13$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7127029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa74…78b9backed No65c90$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes40c87.57$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.57728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No65c84.48$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.171159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes45c83.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.273,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes59c83.11$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1931062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes37c80.66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6633351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No49c80$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.216550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No49c77.69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.151,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No52c75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.31,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No28c74.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes66c73.07$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5541051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes37c67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.382,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No53c64.57$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.542,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c63.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.647,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes36c63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3216437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…fe00backed Yes48c62.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.451442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c60.25$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.674,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.353,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes34c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.619022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e9…02babacked Yes71c57.45$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.483534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No55c55.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.654547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes40c55$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0364333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02e2…9177backed No62c53.07$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.083663.9%23 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes35c52.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.158,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No57c52.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.63,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes40c50.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2847935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes80c50.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.17832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes45c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6886952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc030…1398backed No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb167…9c59backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.57425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfceb…68ffbacked Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+75.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa58d…c97ebacked Yes34c47.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.06333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.