Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4c10711edcd8f5a3defac56b6ff4b60938f65d00c610e8524b603496a0f9b7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4eb…69e7backed Yes | 59c | 1,603$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe18…3980backed Yes | 57c | 870.88$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 48cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 43c | 851.5$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.05 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 40c | 785.54$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.35 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 50c | 470.81$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.34 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 449.23$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 50c | 433.48$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.2 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 324$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 304.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 302.83$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 300.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 272.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 245.41$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 54c | 235.41$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 235.39$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 217.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 210.63$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 46c | 209.86$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.27 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 35c | 207.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 203.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 195$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 9c | 182.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 44c | 182.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 179.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 79c | 155.14$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 64c | 148.01$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 40c | 145.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 144.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 144$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 29c | 140$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 129.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 42c | 126.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 119.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 46c | 117.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 113.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked Yes | 26c | 112$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 61c | 109.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 108.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…9125backed No | 58c | 106.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 71c | 106.57$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 12c | 105.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 26c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 55c | 102.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 25c | 97.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 94.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 27c | 92.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 53c | 91.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 86.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558d…b8dcbacked Yes | 35c | 82.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…32c8backed Yes | 43c | 81.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 81.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 77.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 40c | 74.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 72.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 69.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 57c | 66.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…87b5backed Yes | 30c | 65.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 64.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 32c | 63.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…7227backed Yes | 29c | 63.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed No | 54c | 63.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9a…33cabacked Yes | 53c | 62.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 40c | 61.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed No | 58c | 60.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 47c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 63c | 53.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 52.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 25c | 52.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…a5b7backed No | 58c | 52.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 52.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5076…e15dbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 65c | 46.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 44.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 40.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 39.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…6663backed No | 66c | 39.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 38c | 39.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 71c | 39.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 38.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…4e61backed Yes | 37c | 36.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.