MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79f25e2683e0a8d022eb09cb59a4512f75917106d97f42ee46ac2db0a4f503c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed No | 50c | 6,308$3,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,167.8 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 51c | 4,290$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.45 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 51c | 1,192$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.92 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed No | 49c | 886.51$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.21 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 49c | 594.52$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.31 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 50c | 275$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Yes | 51c | 161.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Yes | 56c | 160.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 96 | 62.5%60 W · 36 L | +11.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 50c | 136$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 49c | 91.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 45c | 84.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 44c | 64.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 54c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked No | 44c | 47.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed No | 50c | 22.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed Yes | 51c | 22.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 55c | 21.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Metsthis page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York MetsLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.