MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea75b5e309e0ec2ffc4ffe50779c69ab63f0eb4ff771a26cc8efc520ff237a50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked New York Mets | 30c | 6,085$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825.5 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 70c | 3,800$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 70c | 1,863$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 70c | 1,473$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.04 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked New York Mets | 30c | 1,374$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.11 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 1,320$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked New York Mets | 30c | 686.87$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.06 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed New York Mets | 31c | 664.71$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.06 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Mets | 11c | 523.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 11c | 412.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 70c | 405.6$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked New York Mets | 8c | 282.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 11c | 210$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed New York Mets | 13c | 197.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 70c | 189.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 22c | 158.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Mets | 41c | 149.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 133.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 30c | 104.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed New York Mets | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 30c | 93.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked New York Mets | 29c | 76.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 70c | 69.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked New York Mets | 42c | 57.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 70c | 55.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed New York Mets | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 34.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 70c | 22.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York MetsLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.