Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79fb75e737bbfcdff0b4e39728a7cc479b274c6bdf1f0a8bcc357add39147ac7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 38c | 671.09$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.04 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 33c | 361.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.92 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 44c | 263.24$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.62 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 17c | 254.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 20c | 247.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.15 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 214.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 195.72$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 58c | 166.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 28c | 162.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 144.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 127.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 46c | 122.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 58c | 109.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 106.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 58c | 96.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 94.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 50c | 93.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 30c | 92.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 89.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 52c | 87.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 37c | 84.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 68c | 81.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 75c | 72.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3b…2c2ebacked Yes | 29c | 64.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 22c | 63.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 61.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…0952backed Yes | 32c | 61.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 31c | 60.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…5ecebacked Yes | 33c | 55.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 39c | 53.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 53c | 50.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed No | 42c | 46.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 59c | 45.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 41c | 43.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 47c | 39.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 42c | 37.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…9966backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 39c | 34.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 62c | 34.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 69c | 34.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 44c | 32.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 63c | 30.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 68c | 29.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 55c | 27.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…5d59backed Yes | 59c | 27.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 48c | 25.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606c…5d56backed Yes | 57c | 25.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 42c | 24.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 46c | 24.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…18e4backed No | 68c | 22.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 21.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 78c | 19.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.