Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5259577578f314d27bed96b64b1e7c4214d714527b7c1f9fe2c23df60947c5f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked Yes | 1c | 1,081$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 30c | 663.26$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.12 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 77c | 380.27$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.14 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 70c | 376.68$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.38 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 30c | 344.07$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 45c | 310.45$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.79 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 219.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 194.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 35c | 193.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 180.43$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 165.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 40c | 162.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 58c | 161.32$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…9966backed Yes | 42c | 147.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 30c | 126.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 121.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 106.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 61c | 94.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 37c | 92.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 80.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 40c | 71.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 58c | 65.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 44c | 64.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 44c | 64.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 62.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 57.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 65c | 57.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 64c | 56.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3b…2c2ebacked Yes | 39c | 56.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 31c | 55.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 25c | 53.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 27c | 53.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 52.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 59c | 51.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 40c | 50.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 29c | 49.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…e329backed Yes | 39c | 47.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5d…1726backed Yes | 47c | 47.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 23c | 46.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 32c | 45.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 45.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…fcdbbacked No | 76c | 45.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…0952backed Yes | 45c | 45.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 58c | 43.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…5ecebacked Yes | 46c | 42.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 37c | 42.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 61c | 41.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 34c | 41.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 39c | 39.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 39.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 72c | 37.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 39c | 35.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 62c | 34.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 34.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 40c | 34.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 40c | 33.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 63c | 30.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 67c | 28.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 63c | 25.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed No | 72c | 23.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecd…eb97backed No | 60c | 22.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 62c | 21.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 62c | 21.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 56c | 20.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…7deebacked No | 67c | 19.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 62c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 61c | 19.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 68c | 18.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b7…fc8ebacked No | 62c | 18.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 63c | 17.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…f9a2backed No | 71c | 16.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 65c | 16.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.