Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a48e890dbc1559672ca45ac251083268c88d0cf3419654eaa03039cba395836
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 207.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 17c | 203.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 23c | 202.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 23c | 202.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 12c | 168$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 165$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 25c | 165$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 24c | 150.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 33c | 139.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 34c | 139.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 132.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7e…4e99backed Yes | 33c | 126.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 115.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 99.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 99.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 26c | 76.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 62.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 61.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 77c | 60.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 31c | 57.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 76c | 53.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 74c | 52.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1be5…9f44backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 77c | 43.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 24c | 42.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 76c | 37.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 34.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 75c | 28.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 28.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 27.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 18.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.