Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x242c7dfc7f2935858aff162acf4d61b4302f258f04fdbdce3171921bf4186160
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 54c | 1,375$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.86 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 907$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.94 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Yes | 34c | 875.01$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 456.85$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 3c | 434.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 54c | 357.14$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.37 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 46c | 344.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 291.2$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 277.6$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.47 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 48c | 263.54$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.34 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 237.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 46c | 224.92$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.31 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 208.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 48c | 206.83$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 191.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 172$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 56c | 163.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 161.89$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 44c | 160.29$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 64c | 153.84$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 153.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 66c | 151.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 150.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 145$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 52c | 141.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 140.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 46c | 138.42$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 63c | 129$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 54c | 128.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 14c | 127.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 127.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 52c | 125.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 49c | 124.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 32c | 124$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 59c | 123.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 115.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 115.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 114.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 58c | 101.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 34c | 101$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…a656backed Yes | 66c | 100.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 68cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…4024backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed Yes | 46c | 99.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 97.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 96.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 95.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 52c | 95.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 52c | 95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 44c | 88.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 41c | 87.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 67c | 86.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3132…30d1backed Yes | 47c | 86.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked Yes | 47c | 83.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 83.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 80.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…b6e1backed Yes | 47c | 78.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7e…4e99backed Yes | 47c | 78.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed Yes | 47c | 78.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 77.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…442abacked Yes | 47c | 76.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 73.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 57c | 62.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 47c | 59.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 52c | 56.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed No | 66c | 55.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 51c | 50.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 49.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 46c | 47.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 57c | 44.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 43.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 53c | 42.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 52c | 41.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd4…9370backed Yes | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked No | 58c | 41.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce46…a9afbacked No | 57c | 37.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 48c | 37.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 55c | 36.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…0837backed Yes | 63c | 35.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 43c | 34.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 54c | 33.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.