Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a17c740e611dcc7ddd8053e0820cefe5e04fdd0876e098e4f0421a6dbf819c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 34c | 695.47$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.22 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 28c | 495.1$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.47 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 385.23$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 50c | 384.61$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.77 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 346.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 265.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 255.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 31c | 250.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.74 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 231.42$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.84 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 196.04$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 187$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 184.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 176.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 174.84$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 172$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 49c | 164.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 28c | 147.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.89 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked Yes | 72c | 145.27$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 31c | 140.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 64c | 136.12$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 27c | 132.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.47 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 45c | 131.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 54c | 123.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 120.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 41c | 112.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 14c | 105.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.68 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 80c | 103$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 63c | 100.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked No | 74c | 96.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 91.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 31c | 87.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 80c | 84.81$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 51c | 72.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 70.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 68.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 21c | 66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 32c | 65.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 53c | 62.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 23c | 62.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 57.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 49c | 54.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 65c | 53.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 29c | 50.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 64c | 48.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 30c | 47.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 49c | 43.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 27c | 42.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 37c | 41.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 68c | 39.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 27c | 38.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 63c | 37.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 66c | 36.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 36.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…9a6bbacked No | 65c | 36.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 35.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 46c | 34.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 33.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 64c | 33.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 32.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 32.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 32.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 59c | 29.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…d0a3backed No | 72c | 28.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 78c | 28.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 78c | 28.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 28.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 69c | 24.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 78c | 23.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 19.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 73c | 17.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.