MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a48f1adae5f1cef5cd2c6c286ead82ec47819efebe474fe8ec2d7e8d42a5a62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 370$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.3 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 43c | 320$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 59c | 219$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Mets | 58c | 188.3$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed New York Mets | 64c | 157.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Detroit Tigers | 38c | 136.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 93.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Detroit Tigers | 41c | 81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 71.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Detroit Tigers | 31c | 53.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Detroit Tigers | 35c | 50.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Detroit Tigers | 45c | 32.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 32.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 32.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 32.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Detroit Tigers | 58c | 25.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Detroit Tigers | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Detroit Tigers | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked New York Mets | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Detroit Tigers | 63c | 21.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.