MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1229da9c088fdd49349cc84ec225dd47fec1b7888969c8324f21f7fb1d08d52e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked No | 59c | 5,092$3,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,015.44 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 41c | 2,062$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.69 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 41c | 1,805$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 41c | 800$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 41c | 490$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.1 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed No | 59c | 367.81$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.58 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed No | 59c | 301.64$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.97 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 293.92$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 43c | 109.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 41c | 104$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Yes | 42c | 84.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked No | 30c | 81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 28c | 64.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…76a1backed Yes | 42c | 50.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed No | 73c | 48.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked Yes | 48c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…0d6bbacked No | 57c | 43.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cef…8634backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Yes | 42c | 40.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa580…0b4cbacked No | 59c | 32.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…0dfdbacked No | 59c | 32.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 40c | 27.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7272backed No | 72c | 26.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 53c | 20.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. New York Metsthis page
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.