MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb126f8c51f4c8a1d34ec842a1bcce8e141c01764b4a55e60d6293e59a6229e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 48c | 10,158$4,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,282.5 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Over | 52c | 9,854$5,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,744.15 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 9,035$4,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,647.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Under | 49c | 5,985$2,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,962.42 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 3,079$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 49c | 2,320$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.37 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 67c | 1,390$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.7 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 55c | 895.39$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.79 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Over | 55c | 886.5$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.21 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 40c | 576.98$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.79 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 13c | 424.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.36 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 42c | 390$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Under | 45c | 254.7$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 43c | 172.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 168.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Over | 48c | 62.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 47c | 59.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 53c | 51.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 58c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 34c | 50.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 47c | 48.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 49c | 46.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Over | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 47c | 36.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 48c | 35.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 49c | 34.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 38c | 33.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f03…5501backed Over | 41c | 29.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +144.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Over | 71c | 18.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.