MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbdf33e7ceb572a4cffc724e598a3cd108fca31f23835765d871abaca32b9541
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 3,254$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.76 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Over | 26c | 2,953$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.84 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 2,733$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.47 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 56c | 2,533$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.71 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 74c | 2,081$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.94 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed Over | 35c | 1,411$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.28 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 1,062$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 74c | 696.51$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.09 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 671.13$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 34c | 662.15$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.85 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 52c | 553.38$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.09 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 39c | 543.6$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Under | 26c | 470$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 62c | 339.63$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.57 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 72c | 310.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 34c | 306.68$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.85 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 77c | 280.91$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 23c | 274.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 59c | 204.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 74c | 201.75$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.3 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0900…6258backed Over | 68c | 199.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…c02abacked Over | 6c | 192.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 38c | 131.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…643cbacked Over | 55c | 121.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 74c | 119$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 56c | 109.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Under | 46c | 99.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Over | 42c | 91.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 70c | 82.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 75c | 59.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Over | 32c | 55.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 58c | 55.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Under | 40c | 49.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 56c | 46.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 77c | 33.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…a311backed Under | 44c | 32.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 53c | 25.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 75c | 25.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 52c | 22.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 72c | 21.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 49c | 20.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Under | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…d4b3backed Under | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.