Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: De Minaur vs. Holmgren
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a4e6f7729d7cb2301af92a41c981e00282eac02ea1370f2e3d1b233665df9a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- De Minaurof De Minaur, Holmgren
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Holmgren | 45c | 56,851$25,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,688.77 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked De Minaur | 58c | 54,750$31,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,119.08 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…a4a4backed Holmgren | 13c | 21,237$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…f957backed Holmgren | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed De Minaur | 64c | 8,054$5,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,863.68 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed De Minaur | 47c | 7,713$3,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,104.11 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Holmgren | 10c | 7,235$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.77 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…f52cbacked Holmgren | 10c | 6,708$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.73 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…743cbacked Holmgren | 10c | 4,226$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.98 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked De Minaur | 40c | 4,031$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,417.45 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Holmgren | 8c | 3,122$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.28 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Holmgren | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcace…f2f6backed Holmgren | 10c | 1,855$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Holmgren | 13c | 1,777$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Holmgren | 9c | 1,700$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Holmgren | 9c | 1,667$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Holmgren | 78c | 1,480$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.4 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed Holmgren | 7c | 1,152$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked De Minaur | 74c | 1,144$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.28 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Holmgren | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Holmgren | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Holmgren | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Holmgren | 11c | 908.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…9f26backed Holmgren | 9c | 800.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…0659backed Holmgren | 10c | 800$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Holmgren | 9c | 632.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf909…2b17backed Holmgren | 9c | 562.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…3a28backed Holmgren | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…8722backed Holmgren | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Holmgren | 13c | 480$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Holmgren | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Holmgren | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Holmgren | 56c | 300$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Holmgren | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Holmgren | 8c | 235$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Holmgren | 9c | 234$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Holmgren | 9c | 204.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Holmgren | 10c | 201.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7732…fa11backed Holmgren | 46c | 197.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Holmgren | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Holmgren | 9c | 160$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed De Minaur | 20c | 93.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed De Minaur | 50c | 37.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.