Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a67e586a6f14fb2a685aeeadf83efba90107401ec1eb34f7559d87648cd0bc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 373.49$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 222.95$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 210.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.7 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 149.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 145.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 145.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 139.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 34c | 118.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 13c | 117.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 111.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 103.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 61c | 101.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 62c | 80.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 73c | 79.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 69.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 21c | 69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 68.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 34c | 63.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 60.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 33c | 57.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3b…52afbacked Yes | 68c | 57.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 56c | 55.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 24c | 55.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 72c | 54.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 41c | 54.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 47c | 52.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 51.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 31c | 46.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 53c | 43.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 58c | 34.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 32.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 52c | 32.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 50c | 31.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 31.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 69c | 31.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…bfbfbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +189.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…d22cbacked Yes | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 29.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 63c | 28.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 73c | 27.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 51c | 26.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 23.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 54c | 21.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 21.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 48c | 20.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff12…0e11backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca2…9488backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 18.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 56c | 18.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b61…4e57backed Yes | 75c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.