Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8014ea82b52366a684d1b8fb8f35836203965c6117843d848ab828bb132db830
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed No | 77c | 544.97$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.01 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xa30c…ebb2backed Yes | 25c | 494$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 245.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 178.57$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 167.96$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 159.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 136.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 132.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 117.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 98.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 91.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 87.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 56c | 87.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…cd79backed No | 63c | 86.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 63c | 79.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 28c | 76.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3b…52afbacked No | 77c | 76.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 67.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 34c | 65.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 55.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 59c | 54.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 32c | 53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 52.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 67c | 48.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 38c | 46.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 41.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 41.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed No | 60c | 41.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 58c | 40.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 30c | 40.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 37c | 39.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 37.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 35c | 37.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 32c | 36.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 34.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 33.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 32.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 38c | 31.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 31.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 68c | 29.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 23.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 66c | 22.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed No | 57c | 21.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 19.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 67c | 17.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 68c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 73c | 16.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 15.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.