Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a7a4f3184f58728352e666acb9432552902cd767e2cbba18e8d3469d9073ec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 10c | 1,788$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.94 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 46c | 240.22$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.3 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 78c | 238.89$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 219.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 52c | 200.41$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 191.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 59c | 186.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 7c | 179.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 36c | 171.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.58 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 168.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 167.58$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 57c | 164.16$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 52c | 148.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 128.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee1…aaaabacked No | 46c | 119.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 16c | 116.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 56c | 113.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 64c | 105$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 31c | 98.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 98.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 47c | 84.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 59c | 84.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 83.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 82.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 54c | 82.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…b219backed Yes | 61c | 79.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 76.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 53c | 73.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 65c | 70.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 59c | 62.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 61c | 61.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…764dbacked No | 50c | 59.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 56.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 37c | 56.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…00b2backed Yes | 52c | 55.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 52c | 55.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 48c | 53.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 52.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 51c | 48.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 40c | 40.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…ed3dbacked No | 46c | 39.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf08d…5891backed Yes | 53c | 38.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 59c | 36.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc2…e1d3backed Yes | 52c | 36.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 40c | 36.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 35.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 35.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 48c | 35.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 65c | 34.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 60c | 33.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 57c | 33.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…5d52backed Yes | 54c | 33.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 37c | 32.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 62c | 30.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 30.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 40c | 30.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 28.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 75c | 28.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 54c | 27.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa83…18cebacked No | 48c | 27.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 26.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 49c | 25.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 61c | 22.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 67c | 20.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 59c | 19.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 77c | 16.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.