Us Politics · resolved market
Debt ceiling abolished before Trump inauguration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a7d87f637b37679f0178988e35991bf0adf9011019ad339c552168ad931445f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $344,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $514,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $344,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 2c | 37,039$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.61 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191c…36efbacked Yes | 2c | 6,990$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd7…dc01backed Yes | 5c | 5,062$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 12c | 3,043$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 2,564$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,260$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,965$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9520…fa6ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,516$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…b5a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,480$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 1,284$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,214$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 3c | 1,007$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 5c | 950$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 735.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 4c | 535.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4599…2dd3backed Yes | 4c | 461.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cb…6c2abacked Yes | 6c | 422.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…46d6backed Yes | 7c | 180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 80c | 155.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 68c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed No | 79c | 48.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.