Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aa8bcf77483b84ebfa63a17ed38ba7c5c04b4421fc9d39485a864b80c24007f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 46c | 328.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 56c | 307$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.93 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 44c | 299.69$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 39c | 280.65$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 244.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 61c | 241.78$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 42c | 237.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 216.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 60c | 216.1$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.59 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 207.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 206.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 193.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 49c | 192.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 188.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 58c | 180$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 12c | 146$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 61c | 110.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 35c | 102.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 60c | 98.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 51c | 96.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 92.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 91.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 88.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 31c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 43c | 73.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 26c | 73.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 32c | 63.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 60.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 45c | 59.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 54c | 58.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 46c | 56.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 33c | 54.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 33c | 50.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 50.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 26c | 48.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 60c | 48.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 39c | 46.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 28c | 45.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 63c | 45.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 64c | 44.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 47c | 41.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 45c | 40.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 41c | 38.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 36.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 54c | 36.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 40c | 31.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 53c | 25.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 56c | 25.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 23.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 22.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 59c | 20.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd356…963dbacked No | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 74c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.