Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b0d98b90dc85ebc739efc47af804d11a7416fa3dd75817d3a42f10a428cf330
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof REKONIX, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed REKONIX | 11c | 21,924$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,515.39 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed REKONIX | 11c | 3,530$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.39 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked REKONIX | 12c | 2,854$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.52 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed REKONIX | 12c | 2,004$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.48 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…2f08backed REKONIX | 18c | 2,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 344 | 42.2%145 W · 199 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed REKONIX | 13c | 1,941$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.9 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed REKONIX | 14c | 1,925$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.82 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed REKONIX | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed REKONIX | 8c | 1,475$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed REKONIX | 10c | 1,275$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebe…5e6fbacked REKONIX | 18c | 1,200$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.59 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…510bbacked REKONIX | 14c | 1,157$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.98 | 359 | 51.3%184 W · 175 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b5…205abacked REKONIX | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 319 | 53.9%172 W · 147 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed REKONIX | 13c | 1,017$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked REKONIX | 14c | 1,016$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.52 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…1ee8backed REKONIX | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked REKONIX | 11c | 995.78$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.46 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed REKONIX | 12c | 680$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked REKONIX | 13c | 660.72$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed REKONIX | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed REKONIX | 14c | 590.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 271 | 53.5%145 W · 126 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…517ebacked REKONIX | 19c | 499.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked REKONIX | 3c | 454.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed REKONIX | 15c | 439.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed REKONIX | 15c | 405.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked REKONIX | 15c | 399.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked REKONIX | 11c | 387.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…eabbbacked REKONIX | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked REKONIX | 18c | 240.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked REKONIX | 15c | 209.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked REKONIX | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed REKONIX | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…94c8backed REKONIX | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…4be9backed REKONIX | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked REKONIX | 8c | 138.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked REKONIX | 9c | 116.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed REKONIX | 12c | 86.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd85…1a8dbacked Team Spirit | 80c | 72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Team Spirit (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group CTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.