Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b64a7116dfb2451ed420823e3b1e2040d113831c1f3d42a6d94829d48974adc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 66c | 1,124$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.57 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 38c | 581.52$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.77 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 52c | 451.03$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.18 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 69c | 432.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.05 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 42c | 332.37$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.37 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 15c | 289.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 262.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 16c | 257.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 249.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 240.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 47c | 185.51$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 178.71$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 31c | 176.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 140.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 119.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 68c | 107.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 84.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…7444backed No | 18c | 81.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 78.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 72.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 69.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 65.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 35c | 60.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 59.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 55c | 58.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 41c | 51.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 24c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 69c | 41.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 73c | 40.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 36c | 40.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed Yes | 53c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 53c | 37.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 47c | 36.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 32c | 34.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 39c | 32.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa873…6b47backed Yes | 66c | 30.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…75aebacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 28.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 28.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…b843backed No | 64c | 25.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…a634backed Yes | 78c | 21.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 63c | 20.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 20.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7628…d431backed No | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 64c | 18.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 59c | 18.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 17.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 17.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.