Tennis · resolved market
Phoenix: Blaise Bicknell vs Adrian Mannarino
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bb0ab72e7c5f047db4291eb820b749ed077eaa602d51ee3a011d1d1a622ff3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adrian Mannarinoof Blaise Bicknell, Adrian Mannarino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,674 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Blaise Bicknell | 14c | 4,762$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.02 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Blaise Bicknell | 17c | 2,023$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.44 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Adrian Mannarino | 69c | 1,464$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.55 | 1,026 | 50%513 W · 513 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…99f6backed Adrian Mannarino | 47c | 1,065$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.46 | 179 | 36.9%66 W · 113 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…36c9backed Blaise Bicknell | 23c | 1,051$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Adrian Mannarino | 66c | 1,008$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.7 | 464 | 73.3%340 W · 124 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Adrian Mannarino | 77c | 970.46$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.21 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Blaise Bicknell | 43c | 939.77$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.76 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0e…b2ddbacked Adrian Mannarino | 79c | 816.76$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.95 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Adrian Mannarino | 73c | 763.11$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.04 | 655 | 58.9%386 W · 269 L | -32.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Adrian Mannarino | 59c | 568.71$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.43 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Blaise Bicknell | 32c | 476.84$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.77 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Blaise Bicknell | 23c | 347.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Blaise Bicknell | 21c | 299.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Blaise Bicknell | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…77eebacked Adrian Mannarino | 79c | 251.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 819 | 33.1%271 W · 548 L | -30.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Adrian Mannarino | 72c | 251.73$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Blaise Bicknell | 11c | 250.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Adrian Mannarino | 77c | 249.82$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Blaise Bicknell | 19c | 240.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Blaise Bicknell | 30c | 232.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Adrian Mannarino | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Blaise Bicknell | 31c | 193.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 363 | 33.9%123 W · 240 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Blaise Bicknell | 33c | 170$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Blaise Bicknell | 50c | 169$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Blaise Bicknell | 24c | 165.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Blaise Bicknell | 30c | 162.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796c…49dbbacked Blaise Bicknell | 59c | 157.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Blaise Bicknell | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Blaise Bicknell | 20c | 149.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 255 | 46.3%118 W · 137 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6f…d5ccbacked Adrian Mannarino | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Blaise Bicknell | 58c | 135.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26f…ba84backed Adrian Mannarino | 77c | 129.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 65 | 76.9%50 W · 15 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…ca81backed Blaise Bicknell | 32c | 128.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 217 | 20.3%44 W · 173 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Blaise Bicknell | 32c | 126.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Blaise Bicknell | 20c | 120.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Blaise Bicknell | 25c | 119$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Adrian Mannarino | 80c | 110.11$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 156 | 55.8%87 W · 69 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Blaise Bicknell | 23c | 102.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…e4ccbacked Adrian Mannarino | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 515 | 39.8%205 W · 310 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Adrian Mannarino | 73c | 97.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Blaise Bicknell | 25c | 92.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 191 | 29.8%57 W · 134 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x628a…6d8fbacked Blaise Bicknell | 16c | 84.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Blaise Bicknell | 31c | 73.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Adrian Mannarino | 50c | 68.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…bdc2backed Blaise Bicknell | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Blaise Bicknell | 23c | 67.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41f…6100backed Blaise Bicknell | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 112 | 34.8%39 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…e0f7backed Adrian Mannarino | 51c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe3…1f2abacked Adrian Mannarino | 77c | 56.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | -14.3wins | -0.12per pick | 74cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…7794backed Adrian Mannarino | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Blaise Bicknell | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Blaise Bicknell | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c9…89cfbacked Adrian Mannarino | 66c | 45.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…c711backed Blaise Bicknell | 34c | 45.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…d27abacked Adrian Mannarino | 68c | 44.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x537a…7447backed Adrian Mannarino | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Blaise Bicknell | 47c | 42.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Adrian Mannarino | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Blaise Bicknell | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Blaise Bicknell | 29c | 36.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Adrian Mannarino | 66c | 32.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Adrian Mannarino | 78c | 30.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Adrian Mannarino | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Blaise Bicknell | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…2a8cbacked Blaise Bicknell | 55c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…9baebacked Adrian Mannarino | 77c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 908 | 54.5%495 W · 413 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fe…507abacked Adrian Mannarino | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff95…3c1cbacked Adrian Mannarino | 65c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Adrian Mannarino | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…711fbacked Adrian Mannarino | 76c | 17.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Adrian Mannarino | 65c | 17.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 652 | 64.1%418 W · 234 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Adrian Mannarino | 73c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Adrian Mannarino | 69c | 14.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Adrian Mannarino | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix: Blaise Bicknell vs Adrian Mannarinothis page
- Bicknell vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Bicknell vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Bicknell vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Blaise Bicknell vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Bicknell vs MannarinoBicknell won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.