Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-02-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bd096f3f1173610a5cade444965415943c7194688fc657eef996c8257825694
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 8c | 3,288$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.41 | 7,966 | 45.3%3,608 W · 4,358 L | +9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 24c | 1,714$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.37 | 2,361 | 46.8%1,106 W · 1,255 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 17c | 1,395$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.23 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed No | 26c | 1,346$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3070backed Yes | 75c | 1,300$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked No | 25c | 962.97$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.74 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.4wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 14c | 706.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 25c | 674.82$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.71 | 667 | 47.8%319 W · 348 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…cfbebacked Yes | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 26c | 651.45$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.38 | 124 | 26.6%33 W · 91 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 27c | 599.98$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 25c | 444.44$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 275 | 42.5%117 W · 158 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Yes | 77c | 435.06$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 28c | 398.59$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked Yes | 76c | 371.88$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…d120backed Yes | 75c | 365.24$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 76c | 318.7$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes | 75c | 298.38$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…8b6fbacked Yes | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…5cd8backed Yes | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Yes | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 16c | 249$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 72c | 242.52$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 28c | 241.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 169 | 52.1%88 W · 81 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 75c | 212.27$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 69c | 209.62$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e46…e394backed Yes | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 24c | 208.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,111 | 47.9%532 W · 579 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked Yes | 76c | 159.63$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 31c | 149.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…0f54backed No | 28c | 138$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 73c | 137.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…878cbacked Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 144 | 68.8%99 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…30d5backed Yes | 77c | 130.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 74c | 122$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 72c | 115.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 74c | 113.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 550 | 50.2%276 W · 274 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 25c | 107.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 24c | 79.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 47.6%98 W · 108 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 193 | 65.3%126 W · 67 L | +18.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 28c | 65.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Yes | 75c | 65.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f57…ff29backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Yes | 75c | 51.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed No | 25c | 51.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2550…8813backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9c…842bbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,477 | 48.3%713 W · 764 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f8…5bf4backed Yes | 77c | 44.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c06…dd56backed Yes | 75c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Yes | 76c | 40.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…1b36backed Yes | 75c | 40.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…317fbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…1699backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…3046backed Yes | 76c | 34.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e6…8222backed Yes | 75c | 30.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 252 | 63.5%160 W · 92 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 75c | 25.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 73c | 24.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 278 | 56.1%156 W · 122 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…a821backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9726…349fbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…cd31backed Yes | 77c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +112%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…9e33backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed Yes | 74c | 17.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…2afcbacked Yes | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 2,588 | 52.1%1,348 W · 1,240 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Yes | 77c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…a454backed Yes | 77c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…749fbacked Yes | 77c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +112%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb122…8405backed Yes | 77c | 13.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +112%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2469…2861backed Yes | 77c | 13.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-02-14?this page
- Will AFC Ajax vs. Fortuna Sittard end in a draw?No won
- Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-02-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.