Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c0f4e5ffd97efe179244d453fe8bcd04b59c36f298f03232d5748a4caf04c31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 4,325$2,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,162.26 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Over | 50c | 3,305$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.5 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Under | 50c | 2,116$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.21 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…f815backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 932.34$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.17 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 49c | 795.7$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.84 | 1,151 | 47.8%550 W · 601 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Over | 50c | 695$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.5 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c3…bea3backed Over | 51c | 600.76$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.39 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…c02bbacked Under | 54c | 410.12$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Over | 50c | 288.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.84 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…6b32backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ab…2744backed Over | 50c | 195.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 50c | 190.46$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 928 | 46.2%429 W · 499 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…502ebacked Over | 50c | 186$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 45c | 142.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 878 | 38.3%336 W · 542 L | -42.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…271bbacked Under | 51c | 134$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Under | 48c | 131.83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…7bc1backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd799…326cbacked Over | 49c | 110.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…4347backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed Over | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…ba78backed Over | 50c | 97.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…2830backed Over | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9446…602bbacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6462…ad54backed Over | 50c | 63.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…def2backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 60c | 57.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 371 | 46.4%172 W · 199 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 42c | 55.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -17.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Under | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…4ab6backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Under | 40c | 35.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Over | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Under | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5000…c2bebacked Over | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…fb3dbacked Under | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…1347backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -7.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 290 | 43.4%126 W · 164 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6633…dcfebacked Over | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26ce…d827backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 1 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)Team Yandex won
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)Team Yandex won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.