Champions League · resolved market
Will Juventus beat Aston Villa?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c15912cf8a5a623b694b459fef552352df516f74d9d1a66c04d0e484a290890
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 69c | 2,162$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.23 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 70c | 1,926$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.75 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 72c | 1,894$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.02 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 28c | 1,250$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 72c | 1,124$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.61 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Yes | 30c | 1,084$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…fd64backed Yes | 29c | 658.66$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa1…637bbacked Yes | 31c | 607.74$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 70c | 581.65$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.49 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 3c | 465$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 5c | 393.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…e030backed Yes | 29c | 366.03$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 30c | 343.66$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 111 | 32.4%36 W · 75 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 78c | 302.86$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed No | 73c | 290$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 28c | 225$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…0d45backed Yes | 31c | 190.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 31c | 163.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b29…d0a8backed Yes | 31c | 140.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…2d19backed Yes | 31c | 128.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.37per pick | 40cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…692abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…02aebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -10.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 31c | 81.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d90…66d0backed Yes | 29c | 72.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…2b03backed No | 70c | 71.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…3462backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked No | 72c | 60.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc224…cd43backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…1183backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 69c | 41.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1200…a827backed No | 71c | 32.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.50per pick | 65cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Juventus beat Aston Villa?this page
- Will Aston Villa beat Juventus?No won
- Will the match between Aston Villa and Juventus end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.