Champions League · resolved market
Will the match between Aston Villa and Juventus end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1be2c5514cdb7b11304f49f793f48f6acf06530a09b4752c1fe1fbbce1b70cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6451…025fbacked Yes | 45c | 2,220$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.43 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 58c | 1,600$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 74c | 1,590$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.61 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 68c | 598.39$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.9 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 43c | 428.79$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.43 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 31c | 261.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 65c | 213.37$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 71c | 158.9$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked No | 69c | 99.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…63e1backed Yes | 73c | 87.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 69c | 74.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a52…3390backed Yes | 74c | 67.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…5d1fbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…8a79backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…3924backed Yes | 31c | 47.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7449…cefbbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Aston Villa and Juventus end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa beat Juventus?No won
- Will Juventus beat Aston Villa?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.