MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c48167a1cb0e582445beeeb0ccdc94f935902e26bdc9fa6859051fd4c6bc6bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 3,233$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.41 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 2,322$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.01 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 2,010$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.76 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 1,844$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.51 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 22c | 626.2$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.44 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 607.18$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.6 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 171.77$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 148$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 142.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 109.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 85.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 75.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 73.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 70.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 58.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 36.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 25.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 16.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 15.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-5.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.