MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x385a63147f2fb9e7e7303518c46d4655ef130dd056f3b9fc3ed97bcceefa7d2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 2,300$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.11 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 2,208$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.62 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 1,999$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.62 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 1,545$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.31 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 1,104$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.49 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 974.22$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.95 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 967.2$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.51 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 834$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.02 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 750$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.5 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 492$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 319.41$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 314.45$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.14 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 4c | 265.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 232.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 189.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 179$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 138.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 119.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 83.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 78.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 75.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 68.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 56.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 22c | 50.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 23c | 49.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 37.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 37.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 34.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 34.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc83…fdd4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…9da8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 20.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 15.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-5.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.