TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,083 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Yes51c14,538$7,414 inWon+$7,123.694,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdfc…bf06backed No49c8,220$4,028 inLost-$4,027.836651.5%34 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad4…6866backed No49c5,291$2,593 inLost-$2,592.5915849.4%78 W · 80 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7aa…08c3backed No49c967.08$474 inLost-$473.877655.3%42 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x807f…9615backed No48c218$105 inLost-$104.649655.2%53 W · 43 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Yes52c218$113 inWon+$104.641,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked No53c200$105 inLost-$105.055,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Yes49c189.14$92 inWon+$96.891,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcebf…832ebacked No49c60$29 inLost-$29.43956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed No48c36.73$18 inLost-$17.631,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes52c30$16 inWon+$14.42,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33a5…3da0backed Yes51c22.43$11 inWon+$10.997349.3%36 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked No49c22.43$11 inLost-$10.9967444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No54c19.04$10 inLost-$10.2897944.4%435 W · 544 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.