MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eafbdb7a2123bc967fcd5f4169d60561c04c15630de09269e3281bac52102ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed Under | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 43c | 1,100$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 57c | 776.34$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 69c | 672.5$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.79 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 382.51$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 58c | 323$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.66 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 63c | 318.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 244$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 44c | 227.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 218.91$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…a0adbacked Over | 58c | 202$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 42c | 170$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9278…9a1bbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 130 | 57.7%75 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 44c | 149.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b8…0f33backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 34c | 126.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 30c | 122.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Under | 44c | 113.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 44c | 102.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 44c | 101.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…2d41backed Under | 31c | 96.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 43c | 83.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 43c | 83.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 43c | 78.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…832ebacked Under | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 44c | 68.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…614dbacked Under | 41c | 65.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 58c | 63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 43c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 56c | 54.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…a690backed Over | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 34c | 49.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 57c | 49.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 44c | 45.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 57c | 40.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 44c | 30.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bcd6backed Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 58c | 24.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 52c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 56c | 18.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Over | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 15.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-5.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.