MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84bad1edf8fec2d76fc881b5fb0b3ca6d8a79fb00f4a7b7c2c4459a558a2f677
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 80c | 1,026$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 55c | 903.02$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.66 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 45c | 699.99$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.39 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 630.79$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 41c | 335.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.88 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 55c | 229.1$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.01 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 55c | 196.28$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 167.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf15e…80b5backed Over | 14c | 162.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.71 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 21c | 162.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 46c | 151.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 43c | 104.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 38c | 101.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 85.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 38c | 75.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Under | 62c | 71.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 57.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 43c | 48.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 45c | 37.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 63c | 24.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked Under | 63c | 24.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 15.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-5.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.