MLB · resolved market
Rays vs. Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c7bc7594a292eb4790d4b504444e5612c294d255282475f4f4c375def471b15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marlinsof Rays, Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Rays | 47c | 68,461$32,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,354.93 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins | 52c | 50,618$26,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,170.02 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Marlins | 60c | 10,893$6,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,405.64 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Marlins | 52c | 2,661$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.84 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb39…ed7abacked Marlins | 76c | 1,728$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Marlins | 41c | 1,707$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.46 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Marlins | 50c | 1,610$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.6 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…4534backed Rays | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…2b6bbacked Marlins | 41c | 1,166$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Rays | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 205 | 23.4%48 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Marlins | 57c | 933$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.96 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Marlins | 52c | 576.27$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.31 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Marlins | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Rays | 59c | 488.14$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Rays | 9c | 477.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rays | 59c | 415$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.85 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Marlins | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.85 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Rays | 65c | 301$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.42 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Rays | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Marlins | 29c | 297.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.23 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Marlins | 28c | 263.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.26 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Marlins | 44c | 237.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.05 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Rays | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rays | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Rays | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Marlins | 61c | 150.52$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Rays | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Marlins | 22c | 124.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Rays | 59c | 118$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Marlins | 39c | 114$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Rays | 25c | 108$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Marlins | 41c | 105.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…667abacked Marlins | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d5…37e6backed Rays | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Marlins | 41c | 97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 1,055 | 50.3%531 W · 524 L | -10.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins | 40c | 88.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Marlins | 40c | 86.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Rays | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Marlins | 32c | 53.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 387 | 43.2%167 W · 220 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Marlins | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Rays | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Rays | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Rays | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Rays | 61c | 40.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…8885backed Rays | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Marlins | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Marlins | 40c | 38.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Rays | 61c | 36.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Rays | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Rays | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Rays | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Marlins | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1971…c2c4backed Marlins | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Rays | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Rays | 59c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.