Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cee8c57106e6c060c93bb105b827fa1df47394d52f85b3e18491eaa5d5c7ddb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 524.72$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 42c | 300$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.48 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed No | 35c | 297.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 23c | 249.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 247.97$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.68 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 56c | 238.57$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.06 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 237.73$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.97 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 237$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 38c | 236.47$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.67 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 186.87$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 57c | 180.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 78c | 179.89$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 164.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 61c | 163.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 147.52$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed No | 62c | 143.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 116.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 114.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 70c | 99.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 18c | 99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 38c | 90.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 84.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 82.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 39c | 77.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 77.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 43c | 76.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 68.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 44c | 64.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 30c | 61.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 28c | 56.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 56c | 56.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 53.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 50.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 31c | 48.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 56c | 47.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…c578backed Yes | 33c | 45.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 38c | 43.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 73c | 43.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 41.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 31c | 40.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 40.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 73c | 37.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 32.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6284…ac6cbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 38c | 31.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…29b2backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3964…14f0backed Yes | 75c | 29.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 68c | 29.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 40c | 28.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…9682backed No | 62c | 26.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed No | 80c | 26.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 48c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 25.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…5197backed No | 65c | 22.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 73c | 21.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 59c | 20.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf2…172dbacked No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 66c | 18.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.