Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9ad031585898eac876592c1687ef874deb75423c7709480ac896ce4195ab972
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 20c | 384.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 63c | 316.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 6c | 216.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,244 | 16.7%208 W · 1,036 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 67c | 208.07$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6284…ac6cbacked Yes | 30c | 191.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 68c | 167.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 292 | 41.1%120 W · 172 L | +25.3wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 33c | 155.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 74c | 148.83$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 559 | 51.3%287 W · 272 L | +54.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 147.54$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 146.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 43c | 138.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 124.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 38c | 117.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 544 | 48.3%263 W · 281 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 35c | 102.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 631 | 21.9%138 W · 493 L | -33.0wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…4e58backed No | 71c | 98.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 37c | 86.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 604 | 61.1%369 W · 235 L | +29.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 23c | 78.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 484 | 36.6%177 W · 307 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 77.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 1,804 | 55.9%1,009 W · 795 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 77.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 68c | 73.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +14.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 63.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 1,266 | 52.8%668 W · 598 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 56c | 62.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 17c | 60.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,706 | 60.7%1,035 W · 671 L | -23.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 966 | 51.3%496 W · 470 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 40c | 49.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 888 | 55.7%495 W · 393 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 37c | 41.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…c5ddbacked No | 70c | 40.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…2506backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 36c | 39.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 234 | 46.6%109 W · 125 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 32.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 32.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 35c | 32.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23db…cf1cbacked Yes | 38c | 31.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 34c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed No | 79c | 26.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 25.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 64c | 25.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 345 | 64.6%223 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 62c | 24.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 243 | 44.9%109 W · 134 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 916 | 62.3%571 W · 345 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcb…3103backed No | 72c | 17.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.