Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d50b3184da2d4a7a9eb38ea9c2670f5e38ee7758d2238308931070092f34a59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 43c | 266.9$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.22 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 234.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 212.32$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 34c | 210.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 67c | 184.3$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 51c | 169.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.93 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 55c | 151.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 145.51$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 130.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 118$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 107.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 106.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 101.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 93.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 57c | 90.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 28c | 81.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 80.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 80.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 75.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 27c | 74.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 70.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 29c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 66c | 69.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 34c | 68.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 60.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 53.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 27c | 53.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 49.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 48.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 75c | 45.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 45.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 73c | 42.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 74c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 39.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 51c | 39.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 64c | 35.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 32.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed Yes | 64c | 31.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 71c | 31.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked Yes | 65c | 30.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 60c | 30.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 29.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 48c | 25.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…8b12backed No | 45c | 23.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 54 | 88.9%48 W · 6 L | +12.5wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +40%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 69c | 21.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 64c | 21.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 65c | 21.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 70c | 15.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.