Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d6fa4b27c711424b541031be2447b83940475433900312e7880a91dd29f0e36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…2fc3backed Yes | 1c | 5,492$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 3c | 359.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 24c | 353.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 29c | 320.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 18c | 283.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 25c | 249.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 242.97$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 72c | 213$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 71c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 20c | 183.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 28c | 162.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 24c | 159.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 25c | 117.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 19c | 111.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 83.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 27c | 81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 19c | 80.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 77.49$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 74.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 70.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 51.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…b7f4backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 74c | 49.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…f93dbacked Yes | 26c | 45.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 36.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…a04ebacked No | 69c | 26.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed No | 72c | 20.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 76c | 19.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…4d60backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.