Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe68ecda3555aa68ae7d51b59e5c433650d372408f1418e606c0a22e9dd7993ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…2fc3backed Yes | 3c | 1,982$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 27c | 742.29$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.63 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 60c | 451.19$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.73 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 58c | 438.52$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.38 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 399.27$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.45 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 33c | 335.91$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.42 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 33c | 326.68$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 27c | 232.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 221$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 216.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 53c | 202.9$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.27 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 24c | 179.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 31c | 175.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 31c | 159$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 144.6$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 25c | 142.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 70c | 135.03$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 135.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 124.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 120.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 44c | 116.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 114.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 75c | 110.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 80c | 108.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 27c | 106.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 44c | 103.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 46c | 102.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…ad6dbacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 99.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 61c | 97.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 31c | 97.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 97.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 96.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 71c | 83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 74.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 69.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 65.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 62.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 61.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 61.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 44c | 60.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 26c | 59.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…8943backed Yes | 48c | 58.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 73c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…8ab9backed Yes | 32c | 53.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…f75dbacked No | 73c | 52.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed Yes | 35c | 42.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 72c | 41.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 42c | 41.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 39.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 29c | 37.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 37.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 54c | 35.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 77c | 33.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 64c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed No | 73c | 29.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 58c | 25.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 46c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…88babacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…f93dbacked Yes | 73c | 19.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed Yes | 76c | 18.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.