MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d8953327795f9c166f87d3b6d991f05b5749e7840e3579cbe45d2882ddefb05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 6,348$3,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,812.66 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…6633backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 4,840$2,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,419.5 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…bd70backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 3,570$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 1,837$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.29 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 384.25$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.81 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Francisco Giants | 80c | 340.49$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.32 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 27c | 334.63$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.78 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Giants | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 236$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.42 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 136.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa466…1c77backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +238.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 282 | 45.7%129 W · 153 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 77c | 87.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Francisco Giants | 79c | 78.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 64.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 43.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 29.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked San Francisco Giants | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed San Francisco Giants | 71c | 24.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 23.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Francisco Giants | 51c | 19.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 18.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.