MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x731a1a5d09020bad3111521686debe85c0c5f960308aab4c973047c96de4bccd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Over | 60c | 13,826$8,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,473.28 | 343 | 53.4%183 W · 160 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 10,699$4,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,349.81 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 40c | 7,144$2,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,857.48 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 2,382$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.56 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Over | 53c | 1,900$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 57c | 1,771$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.57 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 62c | 1,249$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.62 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 61c | 1,102$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.13 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 39c | 851$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.89 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 409.79$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.79 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 55c | 399$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.55 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 41c | 357.18$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.44 | 325 | 52.9%172 W · 153 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 52c | 340.42$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 39c | 317$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.63 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 41c | 259.75$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…8c91backed Over | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 63c | 183.36$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 35c | 147$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 49c | 72.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 72.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 41c | 71.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 41c | 55.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 62c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Under | 41c | 43.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 61c | 26.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 61c | 24.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.