MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x973004f9a506c6df8eb187e600e7407cca782742f5d5faf9010f7329d805b588
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86f4…bd70backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 5,410$3,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,394.91 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 4,893$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,097.66 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…6633backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 4,355$2,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,697.76 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 3,466$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.01 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 2,406$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.24 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 69c | 2,311$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.2 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 1,256$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.29 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 14c | 241.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.84 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 210.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 163.37$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked San Francisco Giants | 34c | 143.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 130.93$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 33c | 100.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 80c | 72.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Cincinnati Reds | 14c | 72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 61.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed San Francisco Giants | 69c | 53.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked San Francisco Giants | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 44.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 41.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 29.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 28.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 23.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 257 | 52.9%136 W · 121 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.