MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ffac0908ca1a642aeb13f180664f6c31745dd7b8c434fef3d030a28226afdb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 51c | 88,193$44,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,652.5 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Under | 47c | 46,077$21,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,658.53 | 272 | 53.7%146 W · 126 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 24,260$12,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,885.14 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 11,754$5,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,987.36 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 3,870$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.89 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Over | 46c | 3,703$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001.45 | 343 | 53.4%183 W · 160 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 2,516$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.81 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 46c | 2,266$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.03 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 52c | 2,218$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.64 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 2,023$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.81 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 54c | 1,944$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.76 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 53c | 1,924$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.46 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 1,505$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.03 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Over | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.99 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 47c | 1,010$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.38 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 49c | 1,006$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.44 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 1,002$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.98 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 56c | 872.26$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.13 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 55c | 693.93$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.15 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 49c | 635.44$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.96 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 9c | 600$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 47c | 525.96$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.76 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 399.99$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 399.76$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.34 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 48c | 256$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.12 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Over | 46c | 223$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.42 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 46c | 220$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 52c | 203.27$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 52c | 193.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 47c | 186.46$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.24 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Over | 42c | 166.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Under | 37c | 146.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 145$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 54c | 101.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 25c | 90.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 42c | 77.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 68.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 51c | 55.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 48c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 296 | 47.3%140 W · 156 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c5…c13abacked Over | 47c | 40.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 48c | 40.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 70c | 38.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 44c | 38.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Under | 55c | 35.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Under | 54c | 30.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 47c | 27.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 49c | 26.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 49c | 26.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 48c | 24.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 48c | 23.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Under | 47c | 22.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 47c | 21.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.