Golf · resolved market

Will J.J. Spaun win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d8ee4dba51a82f3b54a6794dfc67e9de4746df89a369d415d73f1025f0a6c15

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 10, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,247
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,840

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,247 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc567…04bfbacked Yes	18c	3,399$607 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$607.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No	60c	3,080$1,863 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,217.44	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	34cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e17…2e74backed Yes	7c	2,273$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Yes	27c	2,076$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$552.7	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ed…e60abacked Yes	28c	2,025$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.05	49	14.3%7 W · 42 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed No	60c	1,958$1,181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$776.84	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6cad…ca89backed Yes	45c	1,091$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.89	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	+17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5387…c91ebacked Yes	3c	796$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.83	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked No	79c	733.9$579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.98	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	55c	614$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$276.9	108	50%54 W · 54 L	+6.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes	23c	587$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.93	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f12…5771backed Yes	45c	549.63$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.22per pick	51cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Yes	57c	352$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.64	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.9wins	-0.22per pick	45cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No	43c	342$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.94	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.26per pick	41cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed No	50c	296.97$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.49	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fdb…7ea3backed Yes	56c	270$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.61	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	44c	230$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.24	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes	13c	218.62$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.87	50	4%2 W · 48 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed Yes	19c	196.66$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.69	43	23.3%10 W · 33 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac8c…415cbacked No	79c	190.14$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.83	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.19per pick	65cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58ca…cc33backed No	50c	170.11$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.91	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	18c	124$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.72	295	3.7%11 W · 284 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed No	50c	110$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.87	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed No	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.4	70	31.4%22 W · 48 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes	61c	100$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.41	91	7.7%7 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Yes	56c	88.65$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8105…955abacked Yes	57c	41.37$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.54	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed Yes	69c	40.02$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.67	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.9wins	-0.47per pick	72cpaid	-67%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda58…7ba8backed No	43c	40$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.8	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5734…f13abacked No	69c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	66cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12fb…b892backed No	67c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.87	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+54.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will J.J. Spaun win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event