Golf · resolved market

Will Justin Rose win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05ee8fbaded33a29836d03eaeab3d99b99c8574f5744f1b3b8a709f450e7ced8

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 10, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $138,916
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $156,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,916 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes	60c	45,929$27,345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,584.3	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61bf…647ebacked No	66c	24,682$16,339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,338.82	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef4…412cbacked Yes	16c	22,021$3,523 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,497.64	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.20per pick	10cpaid	+168.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x20da…e704backed Yes	11c	8,475$970 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,504.27	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed No	62c	7,070$4,407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,407.39	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes	57c	3,188$1,828 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,359.89	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	34cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Yes	14c	2,261$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,936.5	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed No	37c	2,242$833 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$832.74	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e17…2e74backed Yes	17c	1,657$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,376.98	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ed…e60abacked Yes	14c	1,639$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,402.2	49	14.3%7 W · 42 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a6…2afbbacked Yes	5c	923.23$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$873.23	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	22cpaid	+67.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Yes	14c	874.2$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$747.44	45	40%18 W · 27 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed Yes	4c	671.48$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$642.11	43	23.3%10 W · 33 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5387…c91ebacked Yes	4c	559.99$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$537.43	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66df…9811backed Yes	17c	520.76$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430.56	81	18.5%15 W · 66 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-37%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes	68c	487$332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.4	91	7.7%7 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbec6…4651backed Yes	11c	480$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$425.76	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.89per pick	11cpaid	+785%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc394…315dbacked Yes	21c	463.48$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$367.53	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89df…c5ddbacked No	47c	455.61$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.88	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58ca…cc33backed No	16c	386.8$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.79	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	5c	371.03$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351.68	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	369$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$317.41	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	10c	310.98$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.93	295	3.7%11 W · 284 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No	39c	275.11$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.5	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.26per pick	41cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes	54c	200$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.24	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8105…955abacked Yes	16c	154.81$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.81	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda75…b043backed Yes	11c	128$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.54	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.89per pick	11cpaid	+785%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed No	45c	120$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.44	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes	50c	106$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.07	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed No	37c	99.98$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.99	50	4%2 W · 48 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes	25c	68.99$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.71	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes	53c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.62	70	31.4%22 W · 48 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda58…7ba8backed No	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed No	66c	42$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.85	40	65%26 W · 14 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Justin Rose win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event