TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Sabres vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Sabres, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,631
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,268

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,631 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe32e…890bbacked Sabres29c18,808$5,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,479.0336242%152 W · 210 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Lightning70c6,369$4,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,910.6116645.8%76 W · 90 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b8…612abacked Lightning53c5,283$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,483.024955.1%27 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Sabres47c5,245$2,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,458.9644848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Lightning71c3,394$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.7127958.8%164 W · 115 L-1.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked Sabres33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9907634.2%26 W · 50 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2214…5968backed Lightning67c2,930$1,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.021154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Lightning71c2,669$1,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.5484051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1186…051bbacked Lightning71c2,500$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4d…275cbacked Sabres1c2,408$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Lightning71c2,346$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.211,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning70c1,911$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.111,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Lightning71c1,869$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.9849351.3%253 W · 240 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd8…858ebacked Sabres2c1,700$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.58720.7%18 W · 69 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Lightning71c1,640$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.4783652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3219…4f05backed Lightning71c1,525$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.252763%17 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd500…eb4fbacked Sabres29c1,500$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4351346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Sabres30c1,468$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.8937738.7%146 W · 231 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61d…22f6backed Lightning71c1,338$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.0230549.2%150 W · 155 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Lightning70c1,250$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37511354%61 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Sabres30c1,154$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.239752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Sabres1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Sabres54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54085148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Lightning71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29097651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3a0…f8aabacked Sabres30c767.52$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.94955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Lightning71c737.46$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.8631753.9%171 W · 146 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45d7…1935backed Lightning72c696.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.586450%32 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9a0…88eebacked Lightning70c658.14$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.9313845.7%63 W · 75 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd33b…4e00backed Sabres29c600.57$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17515246.7%71 W · 81 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Lightning70c596.13$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.8492848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc2…32eebacked Lightning67c569.96$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.722544%11 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lightning62c564.27$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.223,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ac…7f5abacked Lightning70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1504100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd7…1778backed Lightning70c441.05$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.31080%8 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lightning46c429.13$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.731,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40b3…6159backed Lightning71c419.38$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.388870.5%62 W · 26 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+16.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe206…38cebacked Lightning71c417.21$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.938959.6%53 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Lightning71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11637254.3%202 W · 170 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Lightning70c393.9$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1729748.8%145 W · 152 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7662…356bbacked Lightning71c350$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.520649.5%102 W · 104 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Lightning70c344$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.279251.1%405 W · 387 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Sabres30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021750.2%109 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c5…f2afbacked Lightning53c305.57$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.628347%39 W · 44 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-19.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Sabres4c302$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.71895.3%10 W · 179 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8896…7d78backed Lightning72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.787071.4%50 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Sabres35c248.47$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710638.7%41 W · 65 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa99c…3070backed Sabres25c210.23$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5229319.8%58 W · 235 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75aa…58f1backed Lightning53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.682544%11 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49f7…046bbacked Sabres28c183.21$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.38932.6%29 W · 60 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Lightning70c172.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1723462%145 W · 89 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Sabres23c161.11$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2291334.1%311 W · 602 L-27.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb103…b1dbbacked Sabres31c157.42$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.81241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Lightning72c150.98$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8850857.7%293 W · 215 L+0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36db…9fd7backed Lightning71c150$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4411751.3%60 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lightning73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.991,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9bc…73b7backed Sabres37c136.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-47.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f03…b69abacked Sabres26c135.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.197516%12 W · 63 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-43.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe584…fa16backed Sabres30c133.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.962142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb08…621dbacked Sabres29c120$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd11a…bbfebacked Lightning71c120$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e09…fd64backed Sabres30c118.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b65…c4b2backed Sabres29c110.55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.062536%9 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x961a…3cc3backed Sabres30c110$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4073…23d4backed Lightning70c110$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906a…531dbacked Lightning71c108.45$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9801…d04ebacked Sabres30c108$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x275b…998cbacked Lightning70c108$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd02a…c712backed Sabres19c103.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9538744.2%171 W · 216 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Sabres29c103.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7960741%249 W · 358 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Lightning72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2835154.1%190 W · 161 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Sabres22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2254418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Lightning70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3010546.7%49 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x701f…6d50backed Lightning71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…a55abacked Sabres31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7381…5b63backed Sabres29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2960042.8%257 W · 343 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba48…6f06backed Sabres29c99.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5e…70c8backed Lightning70c98$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf2…7b04backed Sabres30c98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffa…ae4fbacked Sabres29c97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa6…a45bbacked Lightning71c97$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Lightning70c95.27$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6628440.1%114 W · 170 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25b8…dc36backed Sabres30c94.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.471866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x73b8…aa92backed Lightning53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3418144.8%81 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f87…5c55backed Sabres29c93.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.242050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1c3b…08a3backed Lightning72c93.33$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.131741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d9b…3035backed Sabres29c92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc268…675ebacked Lightning71c92$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x964f…d25bbacked Lightning71c91$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1275…ed1abacked Sabres29c91$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43a8…e097backed Lightning72c90.51$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.342356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db9…48c4backed Lightning71c88.07$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.541844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bb7…bf7cbacked Lightning72c87.54$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.511942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeba5…5238backed Sabres29c86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba3…c958backed Lightning71c86$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe33d…adcbbacked Sabres29c83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb04c…a7d1backed Lightning71c83$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6baa…7b57backed Sabres29c81.66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.681643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b1…b61ebacked Sabres30c78.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f23…4756backed Lightning70c78.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d42…ed7abacked Sabres30c78.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.61827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.4wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-42.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.